March, 2020

I won’t cover the specifics of the pandemic too much; many excellent books will likely be written to document that.

After a highly infectious coronavirus had spread from a bat (most likely) to a human in the Wuhan province of China at the start of December 2019, it only took weeks for the aggressive virus to widely spread. By the middle of January, when China was well aware of the issue, the virus had escaped China but the world had not been notified of the catastrophe unfolding in China.

Despite much Government attention being given to hypothetical pandemic preparations, the world was slow to respond once the Chinese health community starting providing necessary data (in particular the genome of the virus). By the end of January, after having had only a few weeks to study the virus, most expert epidemiologists and virologists were sounding the alarm. All governments were slow to respond. While China had begun a massive (~750 million people) forced quarantine, governments focused on identifying citizens who had traveled to China. This was foolish. The virus, as explained by the experts, was highly contagious and community spread (people having the virus who had never been to China) was already taking place. It would later be understood that the number of infected people was essentially doubling every week, an unsustainable rate for any population with a vulnerable demographic. And yet governments were only looking for people who had traveled to China…

The entire month of February was lost by governments not taking the experts seriously; by gross negligence on the part of the CDC specific to testing; and by economic forces (the stock market was at an all time high, and shielding the long term economy by strict social distancing and self-quarantining early on – which short term would have slowed the economy – was not a priority). With a dire availability of test kits, Governments were wholly in the dark as to the extent of the contagion, with the number of people dying or requiring ICU care the only metric governments had to go on.

Within the US, with the complete lack of direction being provided at the national level (again, books will be written to shed light on the incompetence shown), states, cities, and companies started acting on their own in the public interest.

On March 9th, as the Trump administration was saying that everything was OK and the contagion would “go away” despite the numbers slowly rising (slowly, again, due to lack of testing), Cisco Headquarters in San Jose (affecting maybe 15,000 people?) forced people to work from home. This is about the time when constructive actions started to happen, globally.

– On March 11 Cisco Europe also instituted a work from home policy (affecting maybe another 15,000 people).
– On March 11 Italy essentially shut down, with 12,462 total cases and 827 dead. 10 days later, despite the lockdown, Italy would have 53,578 total cases and 4,825 dead. For yet unknown reasons (could be the virus or the culture [older people living with younger people in the same family] or not having Communist tools to totally control their population) Italy would quickly surpass China with the highest number of deaths.
– On March 16 Austria essentially closes down.
– On March 20 California essentially closes down.
– etc

The goal was no longer containment; that battle had not been lost, but rather had never been fought. The goal now was mitigation, and specifically to “flatten the curve”, which meant to slow the progression of the COVID-19 disease (caused by this new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2) so that the health care industry would not be overwhelmed, resulting in inadequate care to those who most needed it and therefore more deaths than necessary.

Think about that for a second: the game was over. People were essentially going to be accounted for in 3 ways:

1. Not yet exposed (the assumption is that eventually every human on the planet would be exposed)
2. Exposed (might be very sick, or just sick, or asymptomatic with no symptoms at all)
3. Immune – meaning they had the disease, but are now free from contracting the disease again (at least for 12-24 months, more research required)

So the goal is to slow (but not stop) #1 to allow for sufficient care to be given to the most sick (#2) while ultimately using an antibody test to confirm who (#3) has immunity and can go back to restart the economy.

One example of the many things I’ve read.

http://lifeofannika.com/year/16/images/Salzburg/March/COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2.pdf

From that paper:

The next month is critical: March 16 to April 16. It’s not so dangerous in terms of getting infected personally, but
important in terms of demonstrating we can reduce R0 or increase doubling time.

If we are still doubling each week on April 16, we have only another month to get a second chance.

If that doesn’t work by May 16, there would be no third chance. We would have to immediately clamp down to
avoid hospital overflow. This would require Wuhan-like measures such as central quarantine for sick and enforced
home-isolation for everyone else.

Speaking of the economy, the hit has been brutal.

Amazingly, I’m lucky in this regard. In December 2019 the stock market was on fire (about 29% up for the year) which suggested (to me) that a correction was near. But more importantly the Trump impeachment, an election year, uncertainty in North Korea…I decided to get out of the market by doing what is otherwise completely irrational and NEVER recommended, especially for your long term 401K retirement funds. To be clear: I moved my entire 401K out of stocks and into a US Debt Bond. 3 months later after having sold the stock market is down 29% (for a reason that I never saw coming).

This can’t be emphasized enough. Given my age (57 next month) I am actively considering retirement in the next 5 years. Had I not moved my 401K out of stocks, those plans would be up in smoke. That goes for all other people in my age range, which means millions of people who were at the doorstep of retirement are now looking at an entirely new future, yet unknown. The social and political implications are huge; there will be a degree of bitterness leading to more populist rage than I can imagine.

Here at home, it’s been nearly 7 days since schools closed and we went to a stay-at-home policy. Rups and Inge were here for Andrea’s Birthday, but left early (March 15) before the border between Germany and Austria was to close (March 16). It’s actually been a treat; an intense amount of time together, with the girls getting bored and frustrated at times but they are old enough to resign themselves to this new reality, understanding that the entire world is doing the same. We hang out together, play games, talk, hikes, bike rides, dog walks…pretty cool. Girls seem relaxed, not anxious about all that’s happening. Andrea talks about COVID-19 most of the time, which I don’t think is healthy, especially for the girls. Maybe she’ll get bored with the news soon, too.

Our Spring trip plans to Greece April 4-13 isn’t looking good, which is a huge bummer. I wish I could say it will just be delayed, but I suspect that the pandemic has truncated this entire Austrian adventure. I can easily imagine:

– We shelter in place for months
– The girls don’t return to school, but instead finish the year online, negatively affecting their language immersion.
– The girls don’t see Mimi and Opa for months
– No family vacation to Greece or anywhere else
– Lech in July doesn’t happen
– Andrea’s August plans to northern Germany for Opa’s 80th birthday don’t happen

The (or my) goal for the girls during this year long adventure was language immersion and quality time with grandparents. This triage exercise is negating both of those goals, which really is a shame, a costly loss.

Salzburg has essentially been closed down since Monday. To see what an international tourist destination looks like, take a gander at http://lifeofannika.com/year/16/images/Salzburg/March/COVID-19/

Until then, we will ping-pong on…

Life in the time of COVID-19

Some notes and observations…

My notes at 3 months are here.

Some comments on each.

Annika ~ she seems to be doing well and having fun overall. While she still insists she doesn’t enjoy school, she doesn’t have anything specific to complain about (and in fact complains very little). She seems to like most of her classes & teachers, and while she’s only friendly with 1-2 (both named Clara) other classmates she doesn’t complain about the other students in general. She’s enjoying and succeeding with the online pre-calc class…disappointed that her soccer club was disbanded (but after ~2 months has begun again in a quasi-unofficial capacity, with no games I guess)…and really enjoying her weekends with Maria and friends, going to the clubs and coming home at 4am. Still, she doesn’t sleep in all day on weekends, and while I don’t see her much when I do she seems happy. Annika visited Sol in January during break, and Sol visited Annika on her birthday (which was the only time Annika was lazy and did nothing for an entire day). She went to Vienna to see Milky Chance with Clara from school, and really had a lot of fun. Upon her return she commented to me that she feels like she’s challenging herself socially, breaking out of her being reserved. I’m super happy to hear this – I’m introverted and it really serves no social purpose and is just a hindrance. She’s 17 and for all intents and purposed my parenting is mostly over; Annika is ready to roam free. I think this year will have been transformational for Annika, in all positive ways. The few months before leaving Tahoe she got really drunk twice (commented upon in other blog posts), which was likely a sign of immaturity, boredom, and wanting to fit in. I think Austria has mitigated a lot of those issues – she’s more mature and responsible, not bored, and more comfortable about fitting (or not fitting) in.

Niki & Britta ~ Both are still struggling, which was expected but I was hoping that it wouldn’t last so long. Their primary struggle is language (but that has all sorts of other implications and side effects), and while their speech/reading/writing skills have vastly improved they are still self-conscious enough that their true personalities don’t shine as they don’t talk as much due to language embarrassment. That is improving (their perceptions of themselves are improving), and literally this last week they seem to be acknowledging their increased confidence (talking more, raising their hands in class, etc). Friendships with friends outside of school are still lagging, partly due to the physical distance between us (Elsbethen) and them, partly due to the twins schedule (busy with LeichtAthletic, skiing, etc), and partly due to Andrea just not doing anything to create opportunities. In the last 3 months they have only had only 3 meetings with friends outside of school:

1. Their birthday, where 6 girls came over and they made gingerbread houses
2. One day after school at a friends house to rehearse a skit that they would do with 4 other girls at school
3. A Saturday Euro Park shopping trip with the 4 girls to buy material for the skit

While these opportunities were too few and far in between, it has helped the girls mature and feel more confident with themselves. They also had a weeklong school trip to Obertaurn which they really enjoyed (despite Niki getting sick at the end of the week).

Still, I wonder and worry about the latent stress. Both have a bit of acne, which I think they are too young for. Niki has developed this tic where she looks over her right shoulder, sometimes just a quick glance and other times a full turn of the head. And while Britta quietly perseveres, Niki needs to vent and she can go on and on if you let her. I think it’s important for her to release the pressure, but I also think it’s important for her to manage what’s worth getting bothered over, and what’s not. When I get frustrated with her I have to remind myself she’s only 12…we are expecting her to manage stressful situations that 12 year old’s should not be experiencing.

In February Niki, Britta and I went bowling together on a Sunday evening, and the girls had so much fun. I don’t think it had anything to do with me or bowling, but rather I think it was mostly that for 1-2 hours they could be themselves, and talk English in public and not worry about who is listening. A few weeks later we went to Kart World and same thing, they had a blast. I am confident things will continue to improve, and they will be more outgoing and talkative and positive about their German skills. It’s just painful to watch it take so long, meanwhile their sibling relationship has more dramatic ups and downs since they spend all their time together (so much more than in Tahoe).

For me, the highlight of these 3 months was traveling with the caveat that I didn’t come to Europe so that I could travel everywhere alone….

1. Venice with Mimi & Opa and the girls. This was a lot of fun with the girls.
2. Budapest – an introduction to my European History education
3. Prague – Not as interesting as Prague, but still a good time
4. Paris – a failed attempt to go (no advanced reservations), I made it was far as Munich (dropped Annika off at the airport for Barcelona)
5. Berlin – A fantastic trip, focused on the wall/cold war and WWII/3rd Reich. Intense.
6. Paris, finally. Such a beautiful city

I don’t have any other travel plans as my Eurail pass is almost expired.

While Andrea’s sole motivation seems to be simply hiking or skiing, I’m trying hard to look for other “cultural” (eg urban) opportunities just because we have the chance. I wanted to take the girls to a hockey game, but Andrea and I ended up going with Bill & Robyn who were visiting. Next weekend we’ll go to a soccer RedBull game once more, plus we’ll see Jesus Christ SuperStar. There is also a version of Romeo and Juliet that I will get tickets for, too. There will be more opportunities as Spring approaches…

In summary, things are OK but I admit to already looking forward to returning to Tahoe. My presence here really adds no value to anyone. My tentative plans are to return at the end of June, while the girls will return sometime in August. Due to the work issues last October I have no vacation time, so I wouldn’t be able to do any traveling with the girls over the summer (and anyway I just get in the way).

Let’s hope the next 3 months have a more positive tone from me!