Tri

The subtle message of utensils

A dramatic change takes place in the kitchen and dining area once you have kids. Out of nowhere appears a high chair, and later a Stokke Tripp Trapp® Chair which “Grows With Your Child”. Kitchen drawers and shelves are inundated with sippy cups and plastic utensils and suction bowls and bibs. And it’s all good and celebratory, a constant reminder that things are different now with a little human being in the house.

But then, years go by and very subtlety these things start to disappear, one by one. It’s a slow moving change that may not register on anyone’s radar. No more high chair or bibs, but we still have plastic cups and bowls and small, plastic forks and spoons. Then we lose all that, and all that’s left are small metal forks and spoons.

Much of the time I set the table, while Mama does the cooking. This month, with Annika away in Salzburg and Niki and Britta at the ripe age of 13, I suddenly found myself grabbing 4 “adult” (large) forks to set the table with. And I stopped myself: why did I choose the large forks today, but the small forks yesterday? It makes sense; the girls are old enough, with mouths large enough, to operate an adult fork. But still, should I acknowledge that a chapter is ending? The dining & kitchen changes that first took place 18 years ago (almost exactly) are now gone? Shouldn’t there be some ceremony, all of us dressed in black or some such?

This reaction is a more prompt example of one I’ve noted before: things, places, or activities which used to be a staple of your parental existence suddenly cease to be a part of your life. Whether it’s the toddler area at Rideout, the playground at Common’s Beach, or small plastic (then metal) utensils, suddenly, poof, they are gone with no evidence (short of memories) that they were ever there.

Admittedly the utensils are an obscure and innocuous example of this – I had much more fun playing with the girls at Common’s Beach than I did watching them chew on plastic forks – but it feels like the last stand. There’s not much more in the material world that the girls will graduate away from; we no longer go to playgrounds, we don’t have to dress them, we don’t have to referee meltdown’s, and now, finally, we don’t need child-appropriate utensils.

To be clear: I look forward to the fun and adventure of walking by the side of Niki and Britta as they traverse their teenage years. But, man; things were really fun up to this point, too, and so I just want to let those small forks know: thanks, I will miss you.

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Early Retirement

In June 2019 an old friend Bryan Deaver, who started working at Cisco at the same time I did, visited Tahoe with his family. Bryan was in the middle of a 1 year sabbatical, and when I asked him about returning to Cisco he mentioned that he might simply retire. I’ve known Bryan for 27 years, he’s always been very low key, but his answer stunned me. My first thought was “Wow, can I do that too?”.

Thus began a year long thought exercise about retirement.

Even going back as a young boy I’ve always been careful with my spending, and committed to saving money (even if there was no goal in mind, no desired purchase to aim for) as well as investing money. I’ve made mistakes with investing, and learned along the way, and together my predilection towards saving money, my lesson’s learned over the years about investing, and my luck in having worked for Cisco for 27.5 years, in addition to having started with them 7 years before the dot-com stock crash (meaning for 7 years I was vesting in Cisco stock that was doubling every year) has served me well.

Contemplating retirement really consists of two exercises: doing the financial math, and pondering the emotional, mental, and psychological ramifications of not working (meaning, your purpose in life and your identity not being grounded in your work, your profession, your employer).

The financial math in the 2nd half of 2019 suggested I was really close to being able to retire and not have to adapt my (and my families) life style – meaning I could continue to spend money as I have been. Of course with Annika out of the house in 1 year (sigh), and Niki and Britta out in 6 (double sigh), considering that I have money saved for their college funds that means the money I spend each year will drop a little each year, then a lot in about 6 years.

Still, “really close” doesn’t equal “no problem”. I was enjoying my work, really liked my manager Ed Swenson (who I’ve worked with since Day 1 at Cisco), and was looking ahead to 1 year in Salzburg (9 months really for me, Oct 2019-Jun 2020) so I didn’t think too much more about the financial aspects.

However, 2020, the year of COVID-19 and economic hardships for millions of people, was a boon for me. This sounds like I’m brilliant but it was mostly just luck that I’ve done very well this year financially; my entire net worth has increased by close to 25% due to the stock market (I was out at the right time, got back in at the right time, bought some great stocks along the way, etc).

And so it was that by summer of 2020 my financial calculations now said “no problem”. This awareness of financial freedom going forward allowed me to spend more time contemplating the second exercise (pondering the emotional, mental, and psychological ramifications of not working). And for me this was, after 23 years of living in Tahoe, surrounded my role models demonstrating how to emphasize living over working, an easy task. The chance of using my time to spend with Niki & Britta (Annika was mostly done spending time with me, especially once she could drive) before they turned 16…skiing more, riding more, hiking more, doing more, possibly getting more involved with community events…the future of a retirement looked bright.

But again, I still really enjoyed my job. And then things happened, quickly.

On Wednesday August 12th I had lunch with Rick at Squaw; Rick and I have talked about retirement for a few years now (mostly me encouraging him to retire, as he’s almost 20 years older than I). We talked of it again, and I told him “I’m ready to retire, I just need Cisco to show me the door since I still enjoy my job too much to leave on my own”.

On Thursday August 13th Cisco had their end of fiscal year conference call with Wall Street (I never listen to these), where they announced they intended to cut costs by $1B (or about 6%) over the next year.

On Friday August 14th at the bi-weekly Cisco wide conference calls (they used to be monthly, but starting with COVID-19 they were held much more often) where Cisco announced the details:

1. An early retirement option, for those eligible
2. A reduction in your work week (and pay) of 20% for 1 year (so, working 4 days per week)
3. A layoff

I was not concerned with being layed off, so my priorities were #1, then #2. Anything to have more free time.

On Tuesday August 18th at 10:00am (exactly) I was notified that I was eligible for the early retirement package. Cisco was offering me 15 months of pay, 9 months of health insurance coverage, and expedited stock options. I was thrilled and ready to accept immediately.

Still, I had 10 days before I had to officially accept. I spoke with my manager, looked at my numbers again, and thought things through once more. At no time was there any indication that I should pause, wait, be cautious, or work longer. So on Wednesday Sept 2 I accepted the package, and my last day working for Cisco will be Oct 5, after 27.5 of working for Cisco.

A short Cisco recap:

I was hired in March 1993, working in Mountain View. I had been out of work for 6 months, the first 3 of which were traveling through Australia and New Zealand. By March 1993 I was broke, living with Grandpa in Martinez, and ready to work.

Immediately my time at Cisco was intoxicating. The work was challenging and fun, the people were super smart and competent, the environment was productive and I was not being micro-managed. I was working in the Technical Support Center (TAC), dealing with customer’s directly to resolve their Cisco (hardware of software or configuration) issues. After 1 year in Mountain View, where I had no life and was working too much but also enjoying every minute of it, Cisco moved to their new Headquarters in San Jose. By 1996 after a number of pay raises I was promoted to the escalation team, dealing with high visibility customer problems, working closely with software development, and training young engineers. I traveled to Brussel’s a few times, Australia, Raleigh, Mexico, and numerous customer sites to support customer’s and Cisco engineers.

In 1996, in order to spend more time with Andrea in Germany, I asked for a 3 month sabbatical and Cisco allowed it without hesitation.

In 1997, at the eve of getting married, I asked to work full-time remotely from Tahoe. No one worked remotely, so it was a big ask but my Cisco managers allowed it without hesitation.

In 2003 after Annika was born I took 3 months off to spend time with Annika, and Cisco allowed it without hesitation.

In 2007, just before Niki & Britta were born, I was nervous about having the time to help with them so I asked to leave the TAC (after 14 years) and move to the Certifications group, which was lower stress and easy work. Cisco allowed it without hesitation.

In 2017, after too much time with the Certifications group (the manager was nice but incompetent, the work minimal, I wasn’t dealing directly with customer’s and it wasn’t that technical and the projects would take months and months to complete) I moved back to the Services group, back working for my old friend Ed (I had worked under him once before at TAC). The job was fantastic, Ed’s super smart and great to work for, so it’s been so much fun.

In all, it’s been a wonderful journey; a great company to work for; and an exciting time to be working in the high tech arena. But I’m ready to slow down, to live life, to be more present to my kids and my friends.

This retirement thing has gotten me so excited…

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The intangible price of Austria

I know I’ve complained before, but the point of this blog is to share my thoughts, so…

It’s summer 2020, I’ve been home for about 7 weeks (after spending 2019-2020 in Salzburg), and you girls are still in Salzburg having much fun I know.

Last week I finished a 6 day float down the Salmon River in Northern Idaho. 10 boats, 24 people including 6 teenagers. The teenagers were having a lot of fun the entire time, kayaking and rafting down the river, and I couldn’t help but think about you three and how much fun something like this would be to do as a family (or as a family within a larger group).

The reality, of course, is that summers in Austria prevent any sort of family summer event. We’ve made use of School Spring Break over the years (Death Valley and Dana Point and Disneyland and Florida) but with one exception (2015 and the houseboat trip to Lake Powell) we’ve never been able to enjoy a summer in the US. The personal investment I’ve made in you girls spending the summer in Austria with Mimi and Opa is important, but like any investment there is a (hidden) cost, too.

It’s a sacrifice I willingly make – and at the risk of sounding terribly pitiful, I’m really the only one making a sacrifice in this regard – but it’s a sacrifice that weighs on me year after year. My time with your lovely ladies is finite, and loosing 16% of my potential time with you each year is a high cost.

I want to think that we can make up for this lost time, post college. Go rafting as a family, visit some National Parks, hike the John Muir trail, etc. And if that happens it will be fun and different (you three being older and more mature) and worthwhile, so that’s what I’m hoping for. That will be my final return on my summer-in-Austria investment.

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Salzburg, 9 months in (Mar-May)

3 month summary
6 month summary
COVID-19, part 1
COVID-19, part 2

Spring, the season of rebirth, was certainly relevant as March began for us. While Annika had long ago found her groove, Niki & Britta were finally finding theirs. Between their friendships with classmates growing stronger, and their confidence with the language improving, they seemed to finally be more consumed with being happy than being stressed. We were all looking forward to our Spring break trip to Greece (arrive in Santorini for a few days, then a ferry to Naxos for a few days, possibly visiting Athens before returning to Austria)….not to be.

As mentioned in the 2nd COVID-19 post, Annika was not happy at the start; the loss of social contact was a big sacrifice for her, more so than for Niki & Britta. But as restrictions (both by the government and family) started to ease up at the end of April, Annika was able to see more of Maria and a few other friends which helped a lot. She seemed mostly happy to not be at school – still disappointing that school didn’t turn out to be as positive of an experience as I was hoping for – and very happy that they cancelled all end of year finals, so she coasted into the last week of school with not a care in the world (although she did complain about significant amounts of homework, it didn’t seem too bad to me). Most impressively, at the end of May she also finished her 2nd semester of online pre-calc with a score of 90% – I was so proud, and silently happy that she really seemed to enjoy math. Once school was out and Annika began to formulate some dreams/plans for her summer, she was in a great mood and fun to be around.

Niki & Britta took things in stride in March and April. Each week they would be hyper focused on some non-stop play-distraction in between homework: one week it was ping-pong, next week the Glasenbach creek, the next week spring planting, the next week the pool, the next week the “new” trampoline…it took them a while to adjust to home-schooling. They would panic once any homework was assigned, and weeks went by without them recognizing that they had significant amounts of free time and there was no need to stress over homework assignments. They returned to school in a modified fashion on May 18; going to school (with masks) M-W-F one week, T-Th the next. They were happy to see friends again, although the masks and school changes (no break times, no PE) really changed things; the girls didn’t seem to completely fall back into the groove that was well formed at the start of March. They did have a friend over a few times in May, and they started going back to LeichtAthletic 2 to 3 times each week which was great to get them away from the house and spending time with other kids. They also began horse riding lessons just down the street, which is a nice respite.

At the end of March a Cisco colleague began a weekday aerobics online session payed for by Cisco specifically for the Swiss/German/Austrian Cisco employees. So every Mon/Wed afternoon at 5:10, and Tue/Thur/Fri morning at 7:20 we enjoyed an hour of different aerobics (strength, stretching, pilates with Caro). In hindsight this was huge for me and my continuing knee recovery. It was a great workout, a great way to consistently stretch which I never do. Aerobics, along with my 90 (GlasenbachKlamm) or 135 (Glasenbach/FagerAlm/ErentrudersAlm) minute walks about 5-6 times each week was mentally and physically essential. The girls never had interest, Andrea did sometimes, but even when alone listening to music or a podcast it was always an enjoyable time with Kino.

For the most part it was OK working at home. I worked at the kitchen table so was easily interrupted, but the work pace did slow down due to COVID-19 economic realities so there really wasn’t any stress. And seeing so much of the girls and my daily exercise allowed me to wake up each morning, happy for what I had.

Disappointments? There are a few, but easily forgotten. I was looking forward to more Salzburg cultural events in the Spring with the girls; more live music weekly at the RockHaus; visiting the Eagles Nest with the girls; and more sauna trips. I was intending to do more traveling with Cisco – definitely Hungary, possibly Lisbon, Brussel’s, or Krakow. And, of course, Greece…

As May ends while Austria is slowly opening up there are no plan for gyms to open (the gym near Cisco worked out super well from Nov to mid-March); no plans for the Cisco office to open; and the light at the end of my tunnel is starting to shine, as I envision a return to the US by the end of June (depending on international travel opening up). Rups and Inga plan to arrive June 15th, when the border officially opens, which will be great for the girls and a help to Andrea.

Still, I’m ready and excited to return to Tahoe. I miss friends, I miss road and mountain riding, I think about the house (landscaping, etc) and rentals (which have been empty since mid-March due to COVID-19, a big loss of $$ but that’s OK), and I can see things slowly going back to normal here with respect to time with the girls. I already see them less due to school and LeichtAthletics, and that will increase once Rups and Inga are here (which is a good thing). Girls have school until July 10; then Lech a week later for a week; then northern Germany a week later, again for a week; then they return to the US. The girls don’t realize how quickly the summer will pass, but they will have much fun, hardly noticing my absence.

I won’t be here to help with moving out of the house, which is unfortunate. Andrea, the girls, Rups and Inga did an amazing job of moving everything into the house in August of 2019 before I had arrived; we’ve never really lacked for anything while here. I have no idea where everything came from, no idea where it goes upon our departure…kinda odd. I’ll help where/if I can, once I know my departure plans.

3 months…6 months…9 months…it flies. This idea that Annika hatched at dinner in November 2018 worked out well. I’m confident the girls think so, and will have many fond memories (as well as an improved command of German). As they grow older, meet more friends as young adults and share childhood stories, I suspect/hope they realize that they have enjoyed some amazing opportunities as children, 2 years of living in Austria being the most obvious example…

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The long term future and finances for the girls

Once upon a time the last major gift a father might give to his children – let’s say up to WW II – might be a job, by way of helping them enter the same profession/trade as the parent. Teach them the ropes, introduce them to people, coach them on embracing a life identical to their father, and be content. After WW II there was more social mobility, so some Dad’s might plan financially for his kids to go to college, after which the assumption is the world would be their oyster. Or, for the still respectable blue collar families, ushering the kids into the union trades which had protected the family via the father for many profitable and protected years.

Either way, the point was: for most father’s there was an end to being both financially responsible for your kids, but just as importantly knowing that financial opportunities would come to your children through education, encouraging their dreams and interests, and planting seeds of ambition and responsibility. And this transition to them being self-sufficient began with their graduation from high school (for the blue collar) or college (ideally debt free, for the white collar). This is all very macro dreaming, there are differences at the margins, but the point was that father’s could do their part and plan for college, and the rest (a stable economy, the political environment, a meritocratic system, etc) would take care of itself; indeed, the rest could be ASSUMED.

Let’s say that ended, or at least changed, around 2001, specific to college educated white collar workers.

[I’m not educated in these matters, but I speculate that the good fortune (stable work, good pay, benefits) of blue collar workers stopped ascending in the mid-eighties.]

First, there was the Dot-com crash. Between 1995 and its peak in March 2000, the Nasdaq Composite stock market index rose 400%. I was one of the lucky ones in that group, as I started working at Cisco in March 1993 with 500 shares of Cisco stock to my name that proceeded to split every year (as well as the other stock options that I would receive each year at my annual review), very reliably. I recall some random Spring Sunday in 1995, living so happily in San Francisco, and wanting to understand the stock market better. I researched P/E and all sorts of other mildly esoteric stock concepts, then using the Sunday morning San Francisco Chronicle I chose 3 companies to invest $2000 with, each. And then I forgot about it entirely; not because I lost interest, but because my interest was to buy-and-hold, understand it (slightly) but not think about it (daily, weekly, or even yearly).

Years later, but before March 2000, I finally took a look at those stocks. One was worth around $1500 (so after all that time it LOST $500); one was worth a little more than $2000 (very slight gains); and one was worth $75,000. Stunning. But I learned: investing is smart, long term investing is smarter, and keeping it simple and not obsessing over it smarter still.

But the Dot-com bust taught me another important lesson: make no assumptions. The Nasdaq fell 78% from its peak by October 2002, giving up all its gains during the bubble. The one was I was saved is that those options I received in 1993 (and ’94, and ’95…) HAD to be sold after 4 years. So I made a very handsome profit, not of my doing (given the chance I would have held onto Cisco stock as it plunged during the Dot-com bust).

The stock market prevailed, but the lesson was now in bold letters: you can get burned.

Then, of course, the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Same thing: eventually, if you stayed in the market, it rebounded although it took a few years.

Now, of course, the complete economic shutdown from COVID-19.

But here’s the thing. Even though the markets recover, it takes time, and there is such a thing as being the wrong age at the wrong time. Someone out of college just (say 1-3 years) before the 2001 or 2009 crashes likely found themselves in the exact same financial situation when they were 30 as they were when they were 22. Or if you were 1-3 years from retirement before the 2001 or 2009 crashes, now you might be 8-10 years from retirement. NOTHING can be assumed anymore.

Which gets me to the girls. I’ve prepared to pay their entire college costs, so that they graduate with a clean slate, no debt, and nothing but opportunity ahead. But if this surge/crash cycle continues, as often as it has, I don’t see a clear way for them to improve their lives by financial gain simply by working hard, living simply, and saving and investing as much as possible as time goes on. If their investments go up 100%, only to drop 150%, then all that time in between to get back to 100% is essentially wasted time. Again, I’m being macro (and pessimistic) but it’s on my mind.

Instead of getting the girls through college, then living my life and leaving them with a (hopefully) nice amount upon my passing, now I’m thinking I may need (or more likely want) to be there for them as they go through life’s stages (first new car, first house, first child…). This is not to say that I don’t expect them to be responsible and thrifty and financially smart; it’s to say that in a capitalistic environment like today, where the risk is entirely mitigated by the Government for the very well off while everyone else is on their own to make the right moves (which is a difficult proposition during the emotional rollercoaster of extreme economic turmoil), those that should be deemed winners through long term buying and holding may not be. There are no random $2000 investments turning into $75000 goose eggs anytime soon, no matter long long you hold it.

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COVID-19, 5 weeks and counting

All things considered, we are hanging in there.

Annika, by far, has the most difficult transition. 17 year olds are extremely social beings, and Annika had already established her much loved routines (driving to school with Efie, seeing Clara(s) at school, soccer practice with her teammates, weekends out with Maria and other friends, etc). So the paradox is that during this time is that we all get to see Annika much more (although not as much as one might assume, given we are all remaining at home 24×7), which is great; and she gets to see us so much more, which isn’t so great.

I wish I could persuade Annika to be less judgmental, more open. In 5 weeks I’ve likely taken a 90 minute hike/walk (from the house, through the woods, along the Glasenbach, extremely soothing) around thirty times, and Annika hasn’t gone once. She’s incapable of measuring the value of 90 minutes out of the house against 90 minutes with me. Andrea and I have done aerobics 5 days a week, compliments of Cisco via a virtual class, and Annika has done none. She dismisses it entirely, which I understand if life were normal; but it’s not, so she’s choosing to what? Spend another hour in her room, another hour on her phone, another hour contemplating the madness of this situation? It’s obviously healthy but I long ago lost the ability to persuade this lovely lady who used to adore me. I obviously worry about her mental health (she’s no more or less vulnerable than every other person in the world) but I’ve concluded that I have to tread VERY carefully as I’m more likely to set her off than to help her release and forget. It’s such a bummer to not have any ability to positively influence someone I love so much.

Niki and Britta are doing much better; they are 12, after all, so very resilient. They immerse themselves in one primary thing, tire of it after 3 or 5 or 7 days, then move on. First it was ping pong, then games (backgammon, cards, rumikub, etc), then playing at the Glasenbach creek, then baking, then swimming…but after 5 weeks they are slightly noticing the repetition, but still I think they absolutely prefer this to what they had. They miss their friends and school and German immersion…they certainly miss Mimi and Opa…but they REALLY like staying up late, sleeping in, not having to run here and there following the schedule Andrea jammed tight with activities, cramming 5 days of homework into ~2 days and then relaxing a ton.

While Annika definitely is not going back to school – she knows it’s over and I’m sure that’s difficult to process – the belief now, absolutely subject to change, is that the schools may start to open in ~3 weeks. No idea how that might work if it does happen; the regular schedule ends the school year on July 10, so there are still nearly 3 months of school left so I can certainly see them returning at some point.

As for me, I’m still so happy to be seeing so much of the girls. I’m certain I’ve spent more time with them these 5 weeks than I have the last 8 months combined, so it really is a gift. I’m able to get my work done as needed, do an hour of aerobics each work day, take my 90 minute hike 5-6 times per week, and drink way too much mocha coffee.

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Life in the time of COVID-19 (apologies to Gabriel García Márquez)

I won’t cover the specifics of the pandemic too much; many excellent books will likely be written to document that.

After a highly infectious coronavirus had spread from a bat (most likely) to a human in the Wuhan province of China at the start of December 2019, it only took weeks for the aggressive virus to widely spread. By the middle of January, when China was well aware of the issue, the virus had escaped China but the world had not been notified of the catastrophe unfolding in China.

Despite much Government attention being given to hypothetical pandemic preparations, the world was slow to respond once the Chinese health community starting providing necessary data (in particular the genome of the virus). By the end of January, after having had only a few weeks to study the virus, most expert epidemiologists and virologists were sounding the alarm. All governments were slow to respond. While China had begun a massive (~750 million people) forced quarantine, governments focused on identifying citizens who had traveled to China. This was foolish. The virus, as explained by the experts, was highly contagious and community spread (people having the virus who had never been to China) was already taking place. It would later be understood that the number of infected people was essentially doubling every week, an unsustainable rate for any population with a vulnerable demographic. And yet governments were only looking for people who had traveled to China…

The entire month of February was lost by governments not taking the experts seriously; by gross negligence on the part of the CDC specific to testing; and by economic forces (the stock market was at an all time high, and shielding the long term economy by strict social distancing and self-quarantining early on – which short term would have slowed the economy – was not a priority). With a dire availability of test kits, Governments were wholly in the dark as to the extent of the contagion, with the number of people dying or requiring ICU care the only metric governments had to go on.

Within the US, with the complete lack of direction being provided at the national level (again, books will be written to shed light on the incompetence shown), states, cities, and companies started acting on their own in the public interest.

On March 9th, as the Trump administration was saying that everything was OK and the contagion would “go away” despite the numbers slowly rising (slowly, again, due to lack of testing), Cisco Headquarters in San Jose (affecting maybe 15,000 people?) forced people to work from home. This is about the time when constructive actions started to happen, globally.

– On March 11 Cisco Europe also instituted a work from home policy (affecting maybe another 15,000 people).
– On March 11 Italy essentially shut down, with 12,462 total cases and 827 dead. 10 days later, despite the lockdown, Italy would have 53,578 total cases and 4,825 dead. For yet unknown reasons (could be the virus or the culture [older people living with younger people in the same family] or not having Communist tools to totally control their population) Italy would quickly surpass China with the highest number of deaths.
– On March 16 Austria essentially closes down.
– On March 20 California essentially closes down.
– etc

The goal was no longer containment; that battle had not been lost, but rather had never been fought. The goal now was mitigation, and specifically to “flatten the curve”, which meant to slow the progression of the COVID-19 disease (caused by this new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2) so that the health care industry would not be overwhelmed, resulting in inadequate care to those who most needed it and therefore more deaths than necessary.

Think about that for a second: the game was over. People were essentially going to be accounted for in 3 ways:

1. Not yet exposed (the assumption is that eventually every human on the planet would be exposed)
2. Exposed (might be very sick, or just sick, or asymptomatic with no symptoms at all)
3. Immune – meaning they had the disease, but are now free from contracting the disease again (at least for 12-24 months, more research required)

So the goal is to slow (but not stop) #1 to allow for sufficient care to be given to the most sick (#2) while ultimately using an antibody test to confirm who (#3) has immunity and can go back to restart the economy.

One example of the many things I’ve read.

http://lifeofannika.com/year/16/images/Salzburg/March/COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2.pdf

From that paper:

The next month is critical: March 16 to April 16. It’s not so dangerous in terms of getting infected personally, but
important in terms of demonstrating we can reduce R0 or increase doubling time.

If we are still doubling each week on April 16, we have only another month to get a second chance.

If that doesn’t work by May 16, there would be no third chance. We would have to immediately clamp down to
avoid hospital overflow. This would require Wuhan-like measures such as central quarantine for sick and enforced
home-isolation for everyone else.

Speaking of the economy, the hit has been brutal.

Amazingly, I’m lucky in this regard. In December 2019 the stock market was on fire (about 29% up for the year) which suggested (to me) that a correction was near. But more importantly the Trump impeachment, an election year, uncertainty in North Korea…I decided to get out of the market by doing what is otherwise completely irrational and NEVER recommended, especially for your long term 401K retirement funds. To be clear: I moved my entire 401K out of stocks and into a US Debt Bond. 3 months later after having sold the stock market is down 29% (for a reason that I never saw coming).

This can’t be emphasized enough. Given my age (57 next month) I am actively considering retirement in the next 5 years. Had I not moved my 401K out of stocks, those plans would be up in smoke. That goes for all other people in my age range, which means millions of people who were at the doorstep of retirement are now looking at an entirely new future, yet unknown. The social and political implications are huge; there will be a degree of bitterness leading to more populist rage than I can imagine.

Here at home, it’s been nearly 7 days since schools closed and we went to a stay-at-home policy. Rups and Inge were here for Andrea’s Birthday, but left early (March 15) before the border between Germany and Austria was to close (March 16). It’s actually been a treat; an intense amount of time together, with the girls getting bored and frustrated at times but they are old enough to resign themselves to this new reality, understanding that the entire world is doing the same. We hang out together, play games, talk, hikes, bike rides, dog walks…pretty cool. Girls seem relaxed, not anxious about all that’s happening. Andrea talks about COVID-19 most of the time, which I don’t think is healthy, especially for the girls. Maybe she’ll get bored with the news soon, too.

Our Spring trip plans to Greece April 4-13 isn’t looking good, which is a huge bummer. I wish I could say it will just be delayed, but I suspect that the pandemic has truncated this entire Austrian adventure. I can easily imagine:

– We shelter in place for months
– The girls don’t return to school, but instead finish the year online, negatively affecting their language immersion.
– The girls don’t see Mimi and Opa for months
– No family vacation to Greece or anywhere else
– Lech in July doesn’t happen
– Andrea’s August plans to northern Germany for Opa’s 80th birthday don’t happen

The (or my) goal for the girls during this year long adventure was language immersion and quality time with grandparents. This triage exercise is negating both of those goals, which really is a shame, a costly loss.

Salzburg has essentially been closed down since Monday. To see what an international tourist destination looks like, take a gander at http://lifeofannika.com/year/16/images/Salzburg/March/COVID-19/

Until then, we will ping-pong on…

Life in the time of COVID-19

Posted in Salzburg, Tri Comments Off on Life in the time of COVID-19 (apologies to Gabriel García Márquez)

Salzburg, 6 months in (Dec-Feb)

Some notes and observations…

My notes at 3 months are here.

Some comments on each.

Annika ~ she seems to be doing well and having fun overall. While she still insists she doesn’t enjoy school, she doesn’t have anything specific to complain about (and in fact complains very little). She seems to like most of her classes & teachers, and while she’s only friendly with 1-2 (both named Clara) other classmates she doesn’t complain about the other students in general. She’s enjoying and succeeding with the online pre-calc class…disappointed that her soccer club was disbanded (but after ~2 months has begun again in a quasi-unofficial capacity, with no games I guess)…and really enjoying her weekends with Maria and friends, going to the clubs and coming home at 4am. Still, she doesn’t sleep in all day on weekends, and while I don’t see her much when I do she seems happy. Annika visited Sol in January during break, and Sol visited Annika on her birthday (which was the only time Annika was lazy and did nothing for an entire day). She went to Vienna to see Milky Chance with Clara from school, and really had a lot of fun. Upon her return she commented to me that she feels like she’s challenging herself socially, breaking out of her being reserved. I’m super happy to hear this – I’m introverted and it really serves no social purpose and is just a hindrance. She’s 17 and for all intents and purposed my parenting is mostly over; Annika is ready to roam free. I think this year will have been transformational for Annika, in all positive ways. The few months before leaving Tahoe she got really drunk twice (commented upon in other blog posts), which was likely a sign of immaturity, boredom, and wanting to fit in. I think Austria has mitigated a lot of those issues – she’s more mature and responsible, not bored, and more comfortable about fitting (or not fitting) in.

Niki & Britta ~ Both are still struggling, which was expected but I was hoping that it wouldn’t last so long. Their primary struggle is language (but that has all sorts of other implications and side effects), and while their speech/reading/writing skills have vastly improved they are still self-conscious enough that their true personalities don’t shine as they don’t talk as much due to language embarrassment. That is improving (their perceptions of themselves are improving), and literally this last week they seem to be acknowledging their increased confidence (talking more, raising their hands in class, etc). Friendships with friends outside of school are still lagging, partly due to the physical distance between us (Elsbethen) and them, partly due to the twins schedule (busy with LeichtAthletic, skiing, etc), and partly due to Andrea just not doing anything to create opportunities. In the last 3 months they have only had only 3 meetings with friends outside of school:

1. Their birthday, where 6 girls came over and they made gingerbread houses
2. One day after school at a friends house to rehearse a skit that they would do with 4 other girls at school
3. A Saturday Euro Park shopping trip with the 4 girls to buy material for the skit

While these opportunities were too few and far in between, it has helped the girls mature and feel more confident with themselves. They also had a weeklong school trip to Obertaurn which they really enjoyed (despite Niki getting sick at the end of the week).

Still, I wonder and worry about the latent stress. Both have a bit of acne, which I think they are too young for. Niki has developed this tic where she looks over her right shoulder, sometimes just a quick glance and other times a full turn of the head. And while Britta quietly perseveres, Niki needs to vent and she can go on and on if you let her. I think it’s important for her to release the pressure, but I also think it’s important for her to manage what’s worth getting bothered over, and what’s not. When I get frustrated with her I have to remind myself she’s only 12…we are expecting her to manage stressful situations that 12 year old’s should not be experiencing.

In February Niki, Britta and I went bowling together on a Sunday evening, and the girls had so much fun. I don’t think it had anything to do with me or bowling, but rather I think it was mostly that for 1-2 hours they could be themselves, and talk English in public and not worry about who is listening. A few weeks later we went to Kart World and same thing, they had a blast. I am confident things will continue to improve, and they will be more outgoing and talkative and positive about their German skills. It’s just painful to watch it take so long, meanwhile their sibling relationship has more dramatic ups and downs since they spend all their time together (so much more than in Tahoe).

For me, the highlight of these 3 months was traveling with the caveat that I didn’t come to Europe so that I could travel everywhere alone….

1. Venice with Mimi & Opa and the girls. This was a lot of fun with the girls.
2. Budapest – an introduction to my European History education
3. Prague – Not as interesting as Prague, but still a good time
4. Paris – a failed attempt to go (no advanced reservations), I made it was far as Munich (dropped Annika off at the airport for Barcelona)
5. Berlin – A fantastic trip, focused on the wall/cold war and WWII/3rd Reich. Intense.
6. Paris, finally. Such a beautiful city

I don’t have any other travel plans as my Eurail pass is almost expired.

While Andrea’s sole motivation seems to be simply hiking or skiing, I’m trying hard to look for other “cultural” (eg urban) opportunities just because we have the chance. I wanted to take the girls to a hockey game, but Andrea and I ended up going with Bill & Robyn who were visiting. Next weekend we’ll go to a soccer RedBull game once more, plus we’ll see Jesus Christ SuperStar. There is also a version of Romeo and Juliet that I will get tickets for, too. There will be more opportunities as Spring approaches…

In summary, things are OK but I admit to already looking forward to returning to Tahoe. My presence here really adds no value to anyone. My tentative plans are to return at the end of June, while the girls will return sometime in August. Due to the work issues last October I have no vacation time, so I wouldn’t be able to do any traveling with the girls over the summer (and anyway I just get in the way).

Let’s hope the next 3 months have a more positive tone from me!

Posted in Salzburg, Tri Comments Off on Salzburg, 6 months in (Dec-Feb)

Plumbing

Annika turns 17 tomorrow. Like all birthday’s after 50 years of age, this one puts me in a contemplative mood…

Before more sophisticated marketing took over, at Cisco we used to say we were the plumbing of the Internet. Meaning, just like your toilets and sinks and showers, no one saw where the water went but it was pretty damned important and had better work. Same with digital traffic: no one has a clue where it goes and how it gets there, but it had better damned well work.

Annika is turning 17 and entirely (just as I was at 17) looking forward, looking ahead, expecting adventure and fun and most of all independence when she leaves home on her own for the first and last time in 18 months.

Me? Parenting is a lot like plumbing (well, not really, but stay with me), and I’m looking back at all the plumbing that Annika never saw (it’s all about perspectives) or forgot (too young). There’s surely bad plumbing to be found – when I didn’t give my full attention, when I was impatient, when I was absent, when I was simply wrong. But along the way I did get it right some of the time, and I had front row seats watching Annika (and Niki, and Britta) fall (physically, emotionally, everything), get up, succeed, fail again, hesitate, succeed…on and on. At each step I was celebrating her development, her accomplishment, her graduation…and as years went by these moments came fewer and further between, mostly due to age (we have less physical challenges at 15 than we had at 5) and the intangible (the High School challenges are as much interpersonal, which I apparently can’t help with).

I remember…

– Going from a bottle, so a sippy cup, to her own cup, to pouring her own glass
– Going from lying to crawling to standing to walking to running
– Going from diapers, to underwear, to dressing herself
– Going from hanging on the monkey bars, to 1 bar at a time, to every other hand, to skipping a bar entirely
– Going from the toddler swing to the regular swing being pushed (but not too high!) to being pushed higher to not needing to be pushed at all
– Going from a push bike, to a 2 wheel bike, to no hands
– Going from no homework, to weekly homework with help, to weekly homework with no help, to daily homework with help, to daily homework with no help
– Going from level 2 (gymnastics) to 3, to 4, to 5, to 7
– Going from no opinion to hesitant preferences to “my way or the highway”
– Going from a baby to a toddler to a little girl to a young lady to a young woman

And of course, sadly but expectedly, I remember going from having a vital role in her life to have an important role in her life to being a convenience in her life to being a forced necessity in her life to…well, being an option in her life.

That’s good; it’s a sign of progress, of maturity, of testing independence, of falling down and getting back up all on one’s own.

But you know…on the eve of her 17th Birthday…what I wouldn’t give to have one more spring day at Common’s Beach with my little girl, as we stop going to the indoor Rideout play area and begin to enjoy the warm weather, longer days, and getting on those monkey bars one more time. And Annika looks at me and I think…I’m exactly where I’m supposed to be.

P.S. These contemplations are due to Annika’s 17th birthday, but my thoughts here extend to all you girls. Being your Papa has been the most rewarding experience of my life, and while I have failed you all more times than you know I was always trying to pay attention to those failures, to make them less often….

Posted in Tri Comments Off on Plumbing

Salzburg, 3 months in (Sept-Nov)

Some notes and observations…

The girls have been in Austria since mid-July. Due to work issues my initial plan was to arrive the beginning of Sept. But…

Work issues specific to legal residency in Austria was a hassle. The process started with Cisco in June, and by the end of August I was told it would take another 6 months (with Cisco as my sponsor). I pushed back, suggested that Andrea (as an EU citizen) could be my sponsor and I would go to Austria myself to manage the process.

I came (Sept 17th) and then abruptly left (Oct 1st) due to a delay with my residence permit and (silly and absurd) Cisco requirements. I then returned on Oct 19th, and had my residency permit on Oct 28 to start working again on Nov 4th.

Andrea left on Oct 27th as planned to work at Squaw for 4 weeks; she returned Nov 25th.

The 4 weeks alone with the girls while Andrea was gone was so much fun! Luckily the first of the 4 weeks I was not working so I had time to settle into a routine and figure things out. This included morning and late afternoon walks with Kino, daily trips to the grocery store, driving the girls to school on an emergency basis (the order was bike, bus, me), making lunches which seemed to improve over time until they were a large glass container of numerous fruits, and of course coming up with dinner ideas beyond what the stereotypical Dad is capable of. Every Mon/Wed/Fri Niki and Britta had LeichtAthletic (Track and Field) from 4:30-6 in RIF so they would ride their bikes (25 minutes) there and I would meet them by bike at 6:00 to ride home together in the dark. Each night at 7:45 we would watch the News on Kika (a children’s TV channel) and then start for bed at 8. My days were very much routine driven, but it was good and always ended each night with a story in bed.

For homework support Niki and Britta would Facetime Andrea just about every day, which seemed to be effective both at getting the work done and keeping the stress level down. After Andrea had been gone for 2 weeks Mimi arrived to step in and help out with homework.

I have to admit there was a cost to Mimi coming. The girls love her so much and always look forward to spend time with her, so I did start to see less of them once she arrived but their happiness as having her around was worth it.

Each day I take about 30 minutes for my German training on the phone with Babbel. My German is entirely embarrassing to the girls, which is what feeds my motivation to improve. Slowly.

I hardly ever see Annika. She’s out the door by 7:30 to school, and between after school stops at Mimi’s, or soccer training, or ensconced in her room downstairs doing school work (which would include her online pre-calc class or studying for her Dev 7th SAT test), or out with a friend it’s usual for her to not be having dinner with us. I did seem to score some much needed points with my teenage “protege” by managing to get her out of her Math class (so that she could take online pre-calculus instead; pre-calc was offered at AIS but a conflict with Annika’s schedule didn’t allow her to take it) as well as get her out of PE (with her soccer trainingserving as a reliable substitute).

This month ends with a weekend trip to Venice, which is currently experiencing the worst flooding in 50+ years. Should be an adventure!

Posted in Salzburg, Tri Comments Off on Salzburg, 3 months in (Sept-Nov)